Editor’s Note: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of “The Black Swan,” has published a new book about politics and finance titled “Skin in the Game.” PBS NewsHour economics correspondent Paul Solman spoke with Taleb about the book, the 2008 financial crisis, and President Donald Trump. Their conversation is presented here, edited for length and clarity.
Watch the full segment on Thursday’s NewsHour program. PAUL SOLMAN: I first interviewed you in 2006.
“Black Swan” hadn’t even come out yet. Then came “Black Swan,” the book. Then came the crash of ’08. You became famous for warning people, having warned people, about extreme events and how cataclysmic they could be, right?
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: The reason people paid attention to my work was because I had skin the game at the time. I was involved. I was taking risks. “People don’t understand that we’re not learning from previous crises to force people to have skin in the game” PAUL SOLMAN: You were a trader. NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: I was involved.
I was eating my risk. Owning my own risk, as I write in the book. PAUL SOLMAN: Are there black swans on the horizon now? What are you betting on? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: The point is, the system is fragile because we had a lot of debt.
Plus, there are a bunch of things that have been developing that I’m not comfortable with, developing over, say, the least 20 years, but mostly the last 10 years, I’m not comfortable with. PAUL SOLMAN: They are? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: It’s that rise of the class, the no-skin-in-the-game class in decision-making. PAUL SOLMAN: The no-skin-in-the-game class? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Exactly.
Decision-makers who can drag you into intervention, can drag you into policies that cosmetically feel good, but eventually, somebody pays a price and it’s not them. There are two levels.
The first one, and the most obvious one, is people who intervene in Iraq, thinking, “Hey, we’re going to bring democracy,” or some abstract concept. The thing falls apart, and they walk away from it. They’re not committed with living or owning the toy. They broke it. They don’t own it. Then, the same people make the same mistake with Libya and then now currently with Syria, the warmongers.
In the past, historically, warmongers were soldiers. You could not rise in a senate if you didn’t have war experience.
Today if you have a class of people who inflict risk on others without being affected by the outcome, that class of people is going to disrupt the system, causing some kind of collapse. PAUL SOLMAN: Do you see some kind of collapse on the horizon? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: I can see some severe distortions now from that class of people deciding to “fix” things and, effectively, not paying the price. PAUL SOLMAN: What risk are they posing to us now? “There’s a riot against the class of over-educated, Harvard, Ivy-league, Cambridge, Oxford, Ecole Normale in France — this whole class of people is no longer going to be able to run our affairs.” NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Well, the system is loaded with debt that has benefited these bankers. The chairman of a certain bank now is making $23 million a year again in bonuses.
So, people don’t understand that we’re not learning from previous crises to force people to have skin in the game, so they can avoid stashing these risks. Paul Solman: But if I’m a manager, CEO of a company and I have stock options, then I am punished if the stock goes down. NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: No, not really, because you still have upside, net you have upside. PAUL SOLMAN: You mean, I’m only going to be compensated, I’m never going to have money taken away from me. NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Exactly, whereas the taxpayer only has a downside of that trade. The taxpayer will never have the benefit of what’s going on, but we pay the price as taxpayers.
PAUL SOLMAN: Because we’re going to bail them out, you mean? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Of course, so we are really the people who are owning the risk. PAUL SOLMAN: So, what’s the cost? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Let me take you back to the “Black Swan” and an idea I continued. In the “Black Swan,” I asked myself, “There are experts who are experts, and experts who aren’t. What marker is there? How would we know?
We know very well that a pilot, a plane pilot, is an expert. Why, because there’s skin in the game, there’s some kind of contact with reality. A dentist is an expert. Your tailor is an expert.
But you can never tell if an employee of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States is an expert. As a matter of fact, I’m certain that they’re not experts. Economic forecasters, but they are not experts. So, they are what I call the “faux experts.” We know where they are.
It’s very simply someone who makes a decision that doesn’t have visible consequences for the person to be affected. And that’s what I call the no-skin-in-the-game expert. PAUL SOLMAN: And it’s to the reaction against those experts that you attribute to Brexit and Donald Trump? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Yes, of that rise of the class of pseudo experts running our affairs. PAUL SOLMAN: My initial question was, “What black swans do you see now?” You said, ‘Hey, too many people with not enough skin in the game, is setting us up for’ What? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: For a riot, because people understand. They have the Web, they have Twitter, they have access.
Trump “got the disease right. Now whether he’s going to fix it, I don’t know.” PAUL SOLMAN: What are they going to do? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: They are rioting.
They elected Trump, they are electing all these governments There’s a riot against the class of over-educated, Harvard, Ivy-league, Cambridge, Oxford, Ecole Normale in France, this whole class of people is no longer going to be able to run our affairs The system laden with debt and with pseudo experts will collapse eventually. PAUL SOLMAN: So, that’s the black swan, a collapse. NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: A collapse, because we haven’t really remedied what happened in 2008.
We haven’t fixed anything from 2008, what caused 2008. There’s still a lot of debt in the system Now it may be, miraculously, under Trump, we may have a second wind and America may rise again, and pay the debt. Hopefully that would work. PAUL SOLMAN: You mean huge economic growth? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: That’s my hope. PAUL SOLMAN: Were you in favor of Donald Trump?
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: I was not against. First of all I gave him higher odds, because of this. I was writing the chapter on the I-Y-I, the Intellectual Yet Idiot, and I was describing the mechanism. And I said people are rioting against that. And I said that anyone who makes more sense to your Chinese grocery store owner, just off the ship, more than to an intellectual, would win. That’s what happened. I gave Trump close to 50 percent chance at a time when it was not possible.
Mostly for technical reasons, and also because I believe that you can see that he makes a lot of sense to merchants, to small business owners, but he doesn’t make sense to intellectuals. So, he has to be that person. But anyone would have been elected, had they played that same platform, of coming in and trying to address in simplistic, but very clear, no nonsense terms to the general public.
PAUL SOLMAN: By saying the people who have been running the show have been leading you astray. NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: He got the disease right. Now whether he’s going to fix it, I don’t know.
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About The Black Swan: Second Edition The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know.
We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world.
In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world.
Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.” —GQ Praise for The Black Swan “A book that altered modern thinking.” — The Times (London) “A masterpiece.” —Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.” —Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “ The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.” —Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “Taleb writes in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and narrative fallacy.” —The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling. Easy to dip into.” — Financial Times “Engaging. The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.” —The New York Times Book Review.
About The Black Swan: Second Edition The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11.
For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.” —GQ Praise for The Black Swan “A book that altered modern thinking.” — The Times (London) “A masterpiece.” —Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.” —Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “ The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.” —Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “Taleb writes in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and narrative fallacy.” —The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling. Easy to dip into.” — Financial Times “Engaging. The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.” —The New York Times Book Review.
About The Black Swan: Second Edition The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur?
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Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell.
He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.” —GQ Praise for The Black Swan “A book that altered modern thinking.” — The Times (London) “A masterpiece.” —Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.” —Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “ The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.” —Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “Taleb writes in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and narrative fallacy.” —The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling. Easy to dip into.” — Financial Times “Engaging. The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.” —The New York Times Book Review. About The Black Swan: Second Edition The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11.
For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur?
Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do.
We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
Includes a bonus pdf of tables and figures. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.” —GQ Praise for The Black Swan “A book that altered modern thinking.” — The Times (London) “A masterpiece.” —Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.” —Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “ The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.” —Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “Taleb writes in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and narrative fallacy.” —The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling. Easy to dip into.” — Financial Times “Engaging. The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.” —The New York Times Book Review.
Praise Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.” —GQ Praise for The Black Swan “A book that altered modern thinking.” — The Times (London) “A masterpiece.” —Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.” —Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “ The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.” —Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “Taleb writes in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and narrative fallacy.” —The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling. Easy to dip into.” — Financial Times “Engaging. The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.” —The New York Times Book Review. Author Q&A The Black Swan is an intriguing title — can you give us an overview of what a black swan looks like? The Black Swan is about these unexpected events that end up controlling our lives, the world, the economy, history, everything.
Before they happen we consider them close to impossible; after they happen we think that they were predictable and partake of a larger scheme. They are rare, but their impact is monstrous. My main problem is: Why we don’t know that these events play such a large role.
Why are we blind to them? What is your favorite example of a black swan? I had to write one for the book, with the fictional character of Yevgenia Krasnova. She starts as an unsuccessful writer, becomes famous and creates a new style –later people found her so obviously talented and believed that the emergence of such style was unavoidable. Most successful stories in the arts and letters are Black Swans. Outside the arts, my favorite one is the emergence of the computer and the internet.
Also, almost all drug discoveries are Black Swans. The existence of the universe is a Black Swan What first got you interested in the world of uncertainty and probability? I have been thinking about the neglected role of luck and our overestimation of knowledge ever since I can remember, though not in clear form. You know, children philosophize more than adults –and they are critical of adults.
I hated school because I liked to daydream and the system tried to stop me from that. Later, I figured out that that the system taught you what little certainties we think we had, and trained you to become a sucker by making you ashamed of saying 'I don’t know'. The world is too ambiguous –the Black Swan comes from believing in crisp and neat texture of reality, and from the overestimation of our skills in mapping the world. Duniyadari hd download download.
But I was only able to express my idea after I started working in the city of London and in Wall Street. It seemed so obvious that people in Wall Street didn’t know what was going on, yet thought that they did. It was so blatant that they overestimated their explanations, the role of 'skills', yet didn’t realize it. So I kept a tally of predictions and realized they can’t predict but somehow manage to convince themselves they could.
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The Black Swan, that rare, high-impact event, was the main reason for their failure to predict and understand the world. It was both a psychological problem (we didn’t know) and an empirical one; so I approached the problem from both ends. What do you want people to take away from reading your book? How not to be a fool for things that matter. You can take advantage of uncertainty if you know how to look it in the eye, and know the limits of what we understand. You should learn to accept fuzziness and know that we know very little in some domains –but that it can be so useful a guidance to reality.
How to avoid taking seriously the 'faux experts' (those who wear suits and act in a pompous way). How listening to the media,or studying economics, degrades your knowledge of the world. How do you write? Do you have a special room in which you work and a set routine? My principal activity is daydreaming, so I may write mostly in my head.
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I have no routine, no work ethics. For years I had an upper limit of 50 minutes a day of actual writing so I would keep enjoying it. If I am bored, I stop right away, or I try to change the subject.
You can easily fool yourself, not the reader: if you don’t enjoy what you are writing about, the reader will somehow figure it out. So I may go for a long time without writing anything except a check. Also, I need an aesthetic environment. I write in my ' literary library', the one that does not have technical books and technical papers –it is like a sacred space.
I also like to write in cafes away from business people, with bohemian people around. Writing is sacred, other activities are profane, and I don’t want them to corrupt my writing.
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